Saturday, January 31, 2015

Diehard prediction: Seattle will blow out New England

Earlier this week, on Inside the NFL, Phil Simms--who normally makes sense--declared that a blowout in this Super Bowl would be "literally impossible,"

It appears that Simms literally does not know the meaning of "literally."

For Simms' growth as a user of the English language, here are a few examples of things that are in fact literally impossible:
1. Phil Simms playing in tomorrow's Super Bowl;
2. Bill Belichick or Tom Brady coming clean about Deflategate;
3. Katy Perry dressing modestly at any point during the halftime show;
4. Either team forfeiting; or
5. Both teams wearing pink tutus.

Most analysts side with Vegas in predicting a close game, and I can certainly see how that seems likely. I agree that the Patriots blowing out the Seahawks is extremely improbable, because Seattle's defense is so good, and because Carroll always seems to find a way to keep games close. But it's still possible.

The Diehard is going to edge out on a limb, defy the conventional wisdom and predict that the Seahawks will annihilate New England.

I get that this is unlikely. The Patriots have a good defense and great coaching that tends to keep games close.

But pretty much no one saw last year's Super Bowl blowout coming, either. The Broncos hadn't been dominated all year, until they encountered Seattle.

I think the Seahawks are going to come out hyped up again and ready to swoop down on the Patriots like a crazed cauldron of rabid raptors.

Tom Brady won't know what hit him, but likely names include Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Kevin Williams, Bruce Irvin and O'Brien Schofield.

Brady will complete more passes to the Legion of Boom than he does to Gronk.

Belicheat will learn that Seahawk defenders are too disciplined to fall for his unconventional formations.

And Darth Hoodie will discover that his defense has no answer for Beast Mode or for the dual threat that is DangeRuss.

Here is my rationale for predicting a blowout:

1. The Delfatriots are cheaters
OK, if anything, Belicheat’s penchant for cheateration gives the Patriots an advantage, but I couldn’t help pointing out once again that New England is dirty. Rob Krafty, Darth Hoodie and Tom Shady run a sinister program where low-character guys feel right at home, like…
1, Corey Dillon, serial wifebeater;
2. Rodney Harrison, twice voted the dirtiest player in the NFL;
3. Albert Haynesworth, the face-stomper who phoned it in after defrauding the Foreskins out of a $41 million signing bonus;
4. Aaron Hernandez, indicted and denied bail on triple murder charges; and
5. Randy Moss, who knocked down a lady cop with his car.

Every once in a while, karma kicks in and right prevails. It will happen tomorrow.

2. New England played a softer schedule

New England and Seattle both played the AFC West, but the Patriots actually did better (3-1, losing by a large margin to Kansas City), while Seattle split (2-2, losing both to Kansas City and San Diego).

The Patriots and Seahawks both went 3-1 against comparable divisions, the NFC North and East, respectively. New England lost a narrow contest to Green Bay, while Seattle let Dallas beat them at home.

The real difference emerges in divisional play. Seattle fought to the top of the NFC West, one of the league’s toughest divisions, while New England continued to dominate the sad AFC East. The NFC Best’s worst team is St. Louis, but the Rams lurked just below .500 while managing to beat solid teams like Denver, Santa Clara and Seattle. The AFC Least, on the other hand, remains a pitiful trio of subpar teams routinely surmounted by the Patriots. While Seattle went 5-1 in the NFC West, New England went 4-2, dropping games to Miami and Buffalo, and nearly getting beaten twice by the lowly New York Jets.

3. Seattle’s D can handle the Patriots
Seattle hasn’t yielded more than thirty points to any offense all year. It allowed 30 just twice, against San Diego and Dallas, early in the season. Each of those defeats was a cautionary tale with a moral relevant to Seattle’s chances in the Super Bowl. The Chargers demonstrated that a capable quarterback could beat us with a dominant tight end, and Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are certainly capable of replicating what Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates did to us. Dallas showed that a good running back could gouge our defense, and LaGarrette Blount on a good day can run as well as DeMarco Murray on an average day. Fortunately, the Patriots’ O-line isn’t quite as formidable as the fantastic five that odious owner Jerry Jones drafted for the Cowboys.

However, those bad days against San Diego and Dallas came before the defensive resurgence that commenced with the midseason return to health of middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and strong safety Kam Chancellor.

Jamaal Charles was the last runner to gouge Seattle for more than 100 yards; not coincidentally, the Chiefs were also the last team to beat the Seahawks, in Week 11. Since then, Seattle has won eight straight, while allowing no runner to gain more than the 73 yards hard-earned by Eddie Lacy last week. The Seahawks have stood their ground, despite even the loss of premier run-stuffer Brandon Mebane and his much-missed belly roll celebration.

Six tight ends have caught touchdowns against the Seahawks this season:
1. Antonio Gates with three for the Chargers in Week 2 (Seattle lost);
2. Jacob Tamme with one for the Broncos in Week 3 (Seattle won);
3. Jason Witten and Gavin Escobar with one each for the Cowboys in Week 6 (Seattle lost);
4. Lance Kendricks with one for the Rams in Week 7 (Seattle lost)
5. Mychal Rivera with two for the Raiders in Week 9 (Seattle won)

Of course, most of that happened when Kam was gimpy and when Wags was out of the lineup.

For ten straight games, no opposing tight end has caught a touchdown pass against the Seahawks.

Over the last nine games, Seattle hasn’t allowed any receiver to accumulate more than 100 yards worth of catches. (Odell Beckham of the Giants was the last to do so, in a Week 10 loss to the Seahawks.)

None of New England’s wide receivers can handle the Legion of Boom. Denver’s wideouts posed a greater challenge last year, and look what happened to them.

Peyton Manning couldn't handle our defense. Neither could Aaron Rodgers. And neither can Tom Shady.

4. DangeRuss is Clutch Incarnate

New England will entice Wilson to reprise his mistakes against Green Bay, but he's far too smart to fall for that again. Against the Packers, DangeRuss made some uncharacteristic mistakes. For a couple of hours, Wilson experienced life the way the rest of us fallible apes do. He made some bad decisions. He dug a hole for himself. 

And then he went back to walking on water. Wilson reverted to his normative baseline of Superclutchness and, with a lot of help from his teammates, won the game.

5. Marshawn Lynch's Mortal Kombat duel with Gronk will prove prophetic

If you haven't seen it, yet, you need to Google and view the Mortal Kombat bout between Beast Mode and Rob Gronkowski that aired on Conan earlier this week. It is hilarious, and epic, and awesome. I expect tomorrow's game to play out in a similar fashion.

Go, Hawks!




No comments:

Post a Comment