Carroll's simple schemes vs. the evil genius of Belicheat

Despite the depth and breadth of Super Bowl media coverage, analysis has generally focused on obvious themes like…

1. The contrasting personalities and coaching styles of Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll, including the fact that the former replaced the latter in New England.

2. Tom Brady and Russell Wilson’s similarities (unheralded draft picks who have vastly exceeded expectations) and differences (aging hotshot old-school prototypical quarterback vs. humble upstart dual threat point guard).

3. Tom Brady vs. Richard Sherman, Canton-bound quarterback vs. the game's most dominant corner... U mad, bro?

4. Richard Sherman vs. Darrelle Revis: Who’s the ultimate shutdown corner?

5. The clash between the Legion of Boom and the NFL’s next-best defensive secondary: Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty, ex-Seahawk Brandon Browner and whoever New England lines up at the other safety position.

6. Clash of the Titans: Seahawks enforcer Kam Chancellor vs. Patriots bruiser Rob Gronkowski (compelling because they’re both distinguished big men, even though Seattle typically defends tight ends with linebackers, not a strong safety)

7. Marshawn Lynch and LaGarrette Blount: Two powerful and relentless runners with thuggish reputations and bad attitudes that got each jettisoned from former teams despite great talent.

These are all worthy storylines, but I won't pursue any of them here.

As a recovering coach, I see this as the ultimate test of Pete Carroll’s defensive philosophy. For more than thirty years, Carroll has run a relatively simple scheme with little variation. On most downs, the offense knows exactly what to expect:

1. Four down linemen to pressure the quarterback and choke off run lanes;

2. Corners pressing man coverage on the outside;

3. A strong safety down in the box with the linebackers to stop the run; and

4. A single-high free safety, roaming deep.

We rarely blitz or play zone. There are few surprises. This simplicity, coupled with extensive film study, frees our defenders to read offenses fast, react decisively and fully exploit their speed and athleticism. Swarm to the ball, wrap up and pulverize your opponent. We’re betting that our men are more athletic than yours, and that we will execute better than you can.

Our defense is unsexy in the upside-down world of fantasy points (i.e., not that many sacks or interceptions), but clinically effective in real-world terms: we just permit fewer points and yards than everyone else, and that’s what wins games.

Many have tried to out-scheme Carroll’s defense. Few have succeeded. But Bill Belichick is an evil genius. If any coach could crack the code, it is he. If there are weaknesses, he will find and capitalize upon them. Darth Hoodie’s creative schemes have already stymied some good defenses (like Baltimore’s), while humiliating some decent ones, like Indianapolis.

If Belicheat can find the Achilles’ talon of the Seahawk defense, and if his athletes can execute, then the game might be close.

In three of Seattle's four losses, tight ends exposed our defense. Conveniently, Belichick's offense features tight ends, including one who is the best in the business.

Carroll's defense has kept tight ends under control during the current eight-game win streak, but Gronk presents the toughest challenge, yet. 

Seattle's offense is similarly simple. We're going to run the ball at you. You know this, so you're going to stack the box to try to corral Marshawn Lynch. We rarely deploy power formations, because our O-line and fullback aren't good enough to blast holes through you. We generally get more mileage from a read-option look, which forces defenses to spend men containing both Beast Mode and Russell Wilson.

Putting eight men in the box also makes it hard for the diminutive DangeRuss to find throwing lanes from the pocket, so he needs to roll out or drop deep. Our receivers don't always get open in the first few seconds, but once Wilson starts scrambling, they improvise routes and eventually elude defenders.

The blueprint for stopping our offense is in the public record. Five teams held Seattle under twenty points this season.

Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell runs hot and cold. When he's in the zone, his playcalling is inspired and inventive, and keeps the defense off balance. But sometimes he assists the defense with pedantic predictability.

At his best, Bevell can match wits with Darth Hoodie. But if we get the vanilla version of Bevell, then Belicheat's defense will severely limit our offense.

Next up: The Diehard prediction