It is difficult to decide among the trio of rookie quarterbacks contending for NFL offensive rookie of the year honors. All three helped transform losing 2011 squads into playoff qualifiers in 2012.
What criteria can help us determine who is most worthy?
Mileage matters. Andrew Luck of the Colts threw for more yards (4,374) than any rookie quarterback in NFL history. That yardage total ranked 7th in the league, and outstripped his two rookie rivals by more than 1,000 yards. While his rivals managed run-oriented offenses, Luck led an impressive aerial attack in his inaugural season, hence his advantage in passing yards. Even when we factor in each quarterback's rushing yards--a relative weakness for Luck versus his two fleet-footed rivals--the Indianapolis quarterback still maintains a significant advantage:
Andrew Luck, Colts: 4,374 yards passing + 255 yards rushing = 4,629 total yards
Robert Griffin III, Skins: 3,200 yards passing + 815 yards rushing = 4,015 total yards
Russell Wilson, Seahawks: 3,118 yards passing + 489 yards rushing = 3,607 total yards
Efficiency should also factor into the decision. Washington's Robert Griffin III achieved the highest efficiency rating ever for a rookie quarterback (102.4), finishing 4th among all qualifying passers. Russell Wilson of Seattle ranked just behind RG3 in efficiency, finishing fifth in the NFL with a rating of 100.0. Luck lagged at 26th with a score of 76.5; this was largely because he threw so many more interceptions (18) than Griffin (5) or Wilson (10).
Ultimately, scoring decides games. The Seahawks' Wilson tied Peyton Manning's record for rookie passing touchdowns with 26, more than Luck (23) or Griffin (20). Wilson also ran for 4 scores, so he produced a total of 30 touchdowns, versus 28 for Luck (23 passing + 5 rushing) and 27 for Griffin (20 thrown + 7 run). Among all quarterbacks for combined passing and rushing touchdowns, Wilson ranked 7th, Luck finished 9th, and Griffin tied for 10th with Josh Freeman and Cam Newton.
Since each statistical criteria yields a different verdict, I argue that we should let circumstances serve as the tiebreaker among the candidates.
As the top two 2012 draft picks, Luck and Griffin were expected to impress. Both signed lucrative contracts. Both were anointed as starters from the first and took all of their reps with the first teams throughout the offseason, the preseason and the regular season. Both had teams built around their strengths. Both benefited from the guidance of some of the best offensive coaches and quarterback gurus in the NFL.
Wilson, on the other hand, was a mere third round pick, widely considered too short to start in the NFL. He signed a modest contract reflecting those modest expectations. Wilson was expected to serve as a backup behind vaunted free agent Matt Flynn and possibly also veteran Tarvaris Jackson; he had to split reps with those men during the offseason and the preseason until he outcompeted them and won the starting job. Thus, he entered the regular season with significantly fewer reps than Luck or Griffin, with a team not yet customized to his skill set, under the guidance of men who have never been considered the best offensive coaches and quarterback gurus in the NFL.
Considering those significant starting disadvantages, Wilson has significantly outperformed his rivals. He is the offensive rookie of the year.
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