Several first-year defenders had stellar seasons in 2012, making it difficult to decide who deserves defensive rookie of the year honors.
The most credible candidates rank among the best players in the league at their respective positions.
This criterion immediately excludes Seattle's 2012 first-round pick, Bruce Irvin, a pass rush specialist at the defensive end position. Irvin had 8 sacks, but 28 NFL players had more, and 3 players had more than twice as many (Von Miller, Aldon Smith and J.J. Watt).
Three rookie linebackers deserve serious consideration:
Lavonte David, OLB, Buccaneers: 139 tackles, 2 sacks, 5 passes defended, 1 interception
Luke Kuechly, MLB, Panthers: 164 tackles, 1 sack, 8 passes defended, 2 interceptions, 3 fumble recoveries
Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seahawks: 140 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 passes defended, 3 interceptions
The trio acquitted themselves admirably in pass coverage.
All three were prolific tackling machines. Kuechly led the league in tackles. Wagner ranked seventh; David finished tied for eighth.
Tackling statistics appear to give the edge to Kuechly, but the Panther had more time and more snaps to make those tackles:
Carolina's defense averaged 30:10 of time on the field last year (19th in the league), defending against 1,010 offensive snaps (10th in the NFL).
Green Bay's D averaged 29:54 (14th in the NFL), defending against 1,033 offensive snaps (20th in the NFL)
Seattle's defense averaged just 28:27 on the field (4th in the NFL), defending against 964 offensive snaps (2nd in the NFL).
Good defenses minimize the time of possession and numbers of snaps for opposing offenses. This is good for the team but bad for the stat lines of individual defenders. (Of course, defenses also benefit when their own team's offense maximizes time of possession and keeps them off the field.)
Wagner played even fewer snaps than the above statistics suggest, because Seattle was able to sub him out and give him some rest in the second halves of three consecutive blowouts late in the season.
So, adjusted for playing time, Wagner is as prolific a tackler as Kuechly.
Moreover, Wagner's teammates are more capable than Kuechly's. It is easier to rack up tackles when you're a stud on an average defense. It's harder when you're a rookie surrounded by talented veteran defenders.
Leadership also matters. As middle linebackers, Kuechly and Wagner were the quarterbacks of the their respective defenses, relaying instructions from the coaching staff, and directing their teammates on-the-fly in pre-snap adjustments as offensive alignments shift and quarterbacks call audibles. Rookies rarely succeed in that role, but both rose to the occasion.
Wagner did so well in training camp that Seattle traded away Barrett Ruud, the veteran middle linebacker they had signed as insurance in case the rookie failed to master the nuances of the position in time for the start of the season.
Kuechly started 2012 as an outside linebacker, but moved inside early in the season when an injury sidelined Carolina's stalwart middle linebacker, Jon Beason.
Since they were the quarterbacks of their respective defenses, perhaps the overall performance of the Carolina and Seattle defenses should count for something.
Carolina: 19th in points allowed (23 per game), 10th in yards allowed, 14th in rushing yards allowed, 13th in passing yards allowed
Seattle: 1st in points allowed (only 15.3 per game), 4th in yards allowed, 10th in rushing yards allowed, 6th in passing yards allowed
Edge: Wagner
Moreover, team success matters. Wagner's defensive leadership helped Seattle post an 11-5 record plus a playoff victory. Despite Kuechly's individual excellence, Carolina finished 7-9 and failed to qualify for the postseason.
Advantage: Wagner.
While Wagner was, in my view, better than any rookie linebacker and better than any rookie defensive lineman.
However, in just 11 starts, cornerback Casey Hayward of the Green Bay Packers defended 21 passes (tied for 3rd in the NFL) and hauled in 6 interceptions (tied for 5th in the league). Green Bay's defense doesn't scare anybody, but Hayward won some respect.
Until last night. Green Bay's entire defense disgraced themselves last night. In the second half, the whole team quit, submitting meekly while Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers thrashed them. Hayward was a relative nonfactor.
The official rookie of the year balloting concluded before the playoffs began, but for me, Wagner's superior performance in the postseason seals his case for defensive rookie of the year.
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