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| Pettine just served Seattle some choice bulletin board fodder |
If I were the head coach of the 3-10 Cleveland Browns, I would not want to talk about tiering.
Earlier this week, Mike Pettine opined that Russell Wilson is not a top-tier quarterback who can "transcend" his "supporting cast," like Tom Shady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Ben Rapistberger. Pettine granted that DangeRuss has "certainly played himself into that next tier."
Pettine Has a Right to be Wrong
I do not regard the Cleveland coach's assessment of Wilson as inherently insulting. If he viewed DangeRuss as the fifth or eight best quarterback in the NFL, then that would still constitute an honor. As Pettine made clear in follow-up comments, the top-tier quarterbacks he mentioned have longer track records, and if Wilson continues to play at his current level, he would eventually join that elite.
Pettine's opinion, while not disrespecful, is factually incorrect. DangeRuss is already a top-tier quarterback by every meaningful measure.
Victories? Wilson's win percentage is .725 (50-19), better than all active players except Shady's .771 (171-49) and better than all retired players, too, except for Roger Staubach's .746 (85-29). Top tier.
Championships? Among active quarterbacks, only Shady (a 16-year serial cheater) and Rapistberger (a 12-year veteran) have more Super Bowl rings (4 and 2, respectively). In just his fourth year, Wilson's single NFL championship ring matches the total earned by Brees in 15 seasons and Rodgers in 12. Top tier.
NFL quarterback rating? DangeRuss currently ranks first. Top tier.
ESPN's alternative QBR system? Wilson ranks fourth, behind Carson Palmer, Rapistberger and Andy Dalton. Top tier.
Completion percentage? Wilson's 68.8% is second, behind Kirk Cousins. Top tier.
Yards? DangeRuss ranks just 13th, but that outpaces both Rodgers (15th) and Rapistberger (20th), each of whom have missed games due to injuries. While Shady (1st) and Brees (4th) have thrown for far more yards. Not elite.
Yards per attempt? Wilson ranks third, behind Palmer and Rapistberger. Top tier.
Most passing touchdowns? DangeRuss ranks eighth, behind Shady, Rodgers and others. 2nd tier.
Highest percentage of passes that go for touchdowns? Wilson ranks third, behind Newton and Palmer. Top tier.
Fewest interceptions? Among quarterbacks who've started most of the season (i.e., attempted at least 250 passes), only four have thrown fewer than Wilson's 7 interceptions: Shady, Rodgers, Alex Smith, Josh McCown and Tyrod Taylor. 2nd tier.
Lowest percentage of passes intercepted? At 1.8%, Wilson is tied for sixth, behind Smith (1%), Shady and Rodgers (both at 1.1%), Josh McCown and Taylor. 2nd tier.
Most statistics suggest that Wilson belongs in the top tier.
When it comes to passing yards--the one area where Wilson does not clearly rank in the top two tiers--it makes sense to question the metric. Few football gurus would argue that total passing yards is a sovereign indicator of quarterbacking quality. Sometimes teams amass much mileage through the air out of desperation, because they can't run the ball, and/or because they're often playing catchup. Evidence: Nine of the 12 teams with quarterbacks who've thrown for more yards than Wilson have lost more games than they've won. San Diego, Oakland, Miami, Jacksonville, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Detroit and the New York Giants would all gladly trade several hundred passing yards for a few more wins.
Most coaches would prefer a more balanced offensive attack, but they want to know that their quarterback can carry a team when necessary, can--as Pettine says--transcend their supporting cast."
Wilson has shown that repeatedly, especially in the last few weeks, despite dramatic turnover at the tailback position and the loss of Jimmy Graham, one of his top receiving targets.
In explaining himself, Pettine acknowledged that DangeRuss is "the perfect quarterback for what they do." Like many analysts, the Cleveland coach seems to imagine that being a good fit for Seattle's run-oriented offense somehow makes Wilson less of a quarterback. Pettine observed, "They've... built it around him."
It would be equally fair to say that the Patriots have built their offense around Shady, that the Steelers designed theirs for Rapistberger, that the Packers customized theirs for Rodgers, and that the Saints developed theirs to suit Brees.
Every team strives to surround its quarterback with a complementary supporting cast, but no other quarterback in the NFL could have achieved what DangeRuss did with Seattle's offense this year. For the first half of the season, the offensive line was dangerously incompetent, and opposing defenses declared open season on Wilson. Shady would have been pulverized and probably on injured reserve by Week Four. Slightly more elusive, Brees might have seen Week Six. Rapistberger's size could have helped him endure as long as Week Eight. Maybe. With a lot of luck, the nimble Rodgers might have lasted long enough to benefit--as DangeRuss has--from the O-Line's improvement, but his stats would look nothing like they do with Green Bay, and I question whether Seattle would have won as many games with the Packer QB under center.
Of course, as a running threat, Wilson adds a dimension to our offense that few quarterbacks can bring. With 456 yards, DangeRuss ranks second in rushing at his position, just behind Cam Newton (480). Smith and Rodgers are the only other quarterbacks to have run for more than 300 yards to date. Top tier.
Pettine and the Bigger Picture
People who coach for failing franchises should not throw stones or talk about tiers.
We can debate whether DangeRuss is an elite quarterback, but there is no question that Pettine is a bottom-tier coach for a hangdog franchise.
Cleveland has never won a Super Bowl. Their last championship came in 1964, a dozen years before the inception of the Seahawks.
Currently stuck in the longest playoff drought in franchise history, the Browns haven't made the playoffs since 2002, and at 3-10, they won't make it this year, unless some sort of apocalyptic disaster wipes out 10 of the other 15 AFC teams. So, 2015 will mark the 22nd consecutive year Cleveland has missed the postseason. At the quarter-century mark, the Browns will earn a share of the historical record shared by Washington and the Cardinals. (Seattle's longest playoff drought was the decade from 1989-98.)
Cleveland's last playoff appearance in 2002 was also the first year of the division realignment that assigned Seattle the NFC West. Since then, the Seahawks have compiled a 125-96 regular season win-loss record (.566) and gone 11-8 in the playoffs (.579). The aptly-named Browns, on the other hand, went 75-146 in the regular season (.339) and 0-1 in the postseason (.000).
The only place Cleveland finishes first are in the NFL's fan pain rankings, and it's not even close.
ESPN analysts give Cleveland an 8.9% chance of winning. I think 11:1 odds are too generous.
Thanks, Mike!
While DangeRuss is definitely a top tier quarterback, the 8-5 Seahawks are at best a second-tier team in the playoff tourney. We need to beat Cleveland to maintain pole position in the wild card hunt.
The Seahawks rarely lack for inspiration on any given Sunday. Coach Carroll's 1-0 mentality runs deep, and the 12th Man would get hyped for a home game against a Pop Warner Tiny-Mite team.
But just in case anyone needed some extra motivation, Pettine gave us some bulletin board gold by making remarks that many will construe as dissing our franchise quarterback.
Wilson was already playing the best football of his life. His receivers are dominating, our O-Line is blocking with conviction and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has gotten back a groove Stella herself would envy.
The Legion of Boom has reclaimed its fearful reputation with a fierce and ravening vengeance.
Sunday will be a bad day to be Johnny Football or any other Cleveland player. I expect to see Browns smeared on the turf of the unforgiving gridiron, shedding tears on the bottom tier of the NFL.
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