Sunday, January 2, 2011

How to beat the Rams

With a win at home today, Seattle can salvage the season. The Seahawks can exorcise the demons of three disappointing years and reclaim the division title.

Almost no one expects this to happen. Vegas oddsmakers list St. Louis as 3-point favorites. In a rare instance of unanimity, the NFL Network's NFC Playbook triumvirate (Brian Baldinger, Shannon Sharpe, and Joe Theismann) and GameDay Morning foursome (Marshall Faulk, Steve Mariucci, Warren Sapp, and Michael Irvin) all foretold doom for the home team. Even Seattle Times reporter Danny O'Neil--normally a homer--picks the Rams to win by 6.

This is understandable. In order to compete today, the Seahawks must arrest and reverse the gravitational force of a three-game losing streak exacerbated by two losing trends: we've lost six of our last seven games, and three of our last four home games.

Moreover, when these teams last met in October, the Rams beat us like a redheaded stepchild mounted on a rented mule that's straddling a dead horse. Playing with the fury of a hungry young team determined to break a 10-game losing streak against Seattle, St. Louis beat us, 20-3.

In that game, neither team managed more than 90 yards on the ground. So, it came down to quarterbacks. Rams rookie Sam Bradford, though pressured early by Seattle and sacked four times, threw for two touchdowns and nearly 300 yards and led his team to victory. Seahawks veteran Matt Hasselbeck--also sacked four times--threw for fewer than 200 yards and zero touchdowns. Both quarterbacks threw an interception.

If Seattle wants to win this game, they need to shut down the Rams' ground attack again. That will be tougher this time. Early this season, Seattle boasted one of the league's best run-stopping defenses. Since then, injuries have taken a toll on our defensive line, transforming our rushing defense into one of the NFL's worst. So, Coach Carroll and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley need to find a way to stop Stephen Jackson, a Pro Bowl running back. Since we've gotten so thin on the defensive line, but remain strong at linebacker, I wonder if the solution might be to sit one of our defensive tackles (Craig Terrill?) and insert an extra linebacker (Will Herring?).

Fortunately, a focus on stopping the run shouldn't hurt our pass defense very much. The St. Louis coaches have sensibly customized their air attack to protect their rookie quarterback from mistakes and maximize his chances for success. (Seattle's coaches should consider similar customization of our offense to the capacities of our starting quarterback.)

Thus, the Rams rarely throw downfield, relying instead on short passes to move the ball. They scorched us with several running back screens in our first meeting. St. Louis also likes to throw bubble screens and slants to Danny Amendola, their best wide receiver. Rams coaches rarely ask their rookie quarterback to stretch the field.

So, we should trust our corners and Earl Thomas--our excellent rookie free safety--to stop the deep ball, and bring strong safety Lawyer Milloy in close to stuff the run and sniff out screen passes.

In search of a compelling story to sell an underwhelming matchup to a national audience, the media has fixated on Sam Bradford, who has indeed put together one of the greatest seasons ever for a rookie quarterback in the NFL. However, he has slid into a slump over the last month, throwing just one touchdown against five interceptions.

Thus, by shutting down the run, Seattle can put the game on the arm of a slumping rookie quarterback. If we deny them the short pass, we can force Bradford to throw deep, let our pass rushers tee off on him, and challenge our defensive backs to grab some picks.

When the Seahawks have the ball, they must find a way to gain traction on the ground. Since we have the league's worst rushing offense, this won't be easy.

Why can't we run the ball?

The problem isn't our running backs. They make the most of the opportunities they are given. If there's a hole, they'll find it. Justin Forsett only needs a few inches of daylight. Marshawn Lynch makes his own holes. If just half the line blocks, he'll gain yards.

But on most downs, our O-Line gets no push. In an effort to address this, Seattle will likely field its tenth different starting offensive line combination, trying Tyler Polumbus at left guard. It couldn't hurt.

However, the greatest menace to our run attack is the predictable playcalling of offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates, who seems to think that God will smite him if he doesn't dial up a handoff to Marshawn Lynch on every first down.

Every once in a while, Bates will get in a groove and call an inspired drive. A few times this year, he has put together a complete game. We need that offensive coordinator to show up today. (If the front office has any sense, the jobs of both Bates and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley should be on the line today.)

In this case, calling a good game means mixing the run and pass in unexpected ways. It also means giving the Rams some of their own medicine. They've got a great defensive line, so we need to call some running back screens to punish them if they try to put too much pressure on our quarterback.

Moreover, calling a good game means geting our tight ends involved in the passing game, because our injury-depleted wide receiver corps simply isn't that good.

Which brings us to the quarterback question. Will it be Hasselbeck or Whitehurst? I appreciate how hard Matt has worked to recover from last week's injury and play today. Nevertheless, I'll take a healthy Whitehurst with a week of practice under his belt over a gimpy Hasselbeck who's had limited reps. Plus, if we rest Matt this week, he'll be that much healthier when he starts a home playoff game next week.

Go, Seahawks! Blast the Lambs off the line of scrimmage!

Scream your lungs out, 12th Man! I want so much noise that St. Louis players are bleeding out of their earholes.

It's time to seize the division championship.

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