For the third time this season, the Seahawks go on the road to face an opponent no one thinks they can beat.
The first time, we stunned everyone by beating Chicago. In the second case, we shook off the humiliation of two consecutive blowouts and took care of business against Arizona.
Could Seattle shock the world again today by beating the defending Super Bowl champions?
The odds are against us. Literally. Along with Carolina, we are the biggest underdogs in the league this week. (The line is 11.5 points.) In other words, Vegas oddsmakers estimate the 5-4 Seahawks' chances of beating the 6-3 Saints in New Orleans are as bad as the 1-8 Panthers' prospects of winning at home against the 6-3 Baltimore Ravens. Relevant note: Injuries will force Carolina to start their third-string quarterback, Brian St. Pierre. It will be his first NFL start. He has 12 career passing yards. (So the real question is why the Panthers aren't 30-point underdogs.)
Speaking of the Panthers, they were the last team the Saints beat, allowing them to go marching into their bye week on a two-game winning streak. This constituted a nice recovery from a rocky second quarter of the season, wherein New Orleans lost in Arizona, blew out the Bucs in Tampa Bay, got upset by the Browns in the Superdome, and then rallied to beat the Steelers at home before going to Carolina to collect an easy win.
Our opponent's recent history of inconsistency--beating solid teams but losing to relative mediocrities--offers some hope to the Seahawks today, but it's hard to imagine the Saints taking us lightly as they did the Browns a few weeks ago.
Moreover, New Orleans has had two weeks to rest up, heal, and forumlate a game plan against us.
Our own team history doesn't favor us, either. The last time the Seahawks won three road games in a single season, or two road games in row, was 2007. I don't know the last time we won two consecutive road games as underdogs.
Matt Hasselbeck lit it up last week, but that broken left wrist has visions of dropped snaps, botched handoffs and easily forced fumbles dancing in the heads of Saints defenders.
Our offense played well against Arizona, but the strong Saints secondary specializes in taking away the deep ball. If our wideouts can't get open, our passing attack will need a strong performance from tight end John Carlson, who was held without a catch last week, and who has produced little thus far this year.
Russell Okung's return from injury could upgrade the offensive line, if he proves truly healthy as he was against Chicago, when he shut down Julius Peppers, one of the league's most dominant pass rushers. But if the rookie has been rushed back from injury and comes out at half strength as he did at St. Louis, it could be a long game.
A healthy Okung could help Seattle gain traction on the ground. Establishing a balanced offense and controlling the clock has never been more important than this week, when we face Drew Brees, the league's most accurate passer.
Today Reggie Bush returns from injury to augment Sean Payton's gaudy offensive arsenal. This game poses a severe challenge to our defensive coaches and players, and will test particularly the depth of our secondary.
Commenting on today's game, discussing the challenge of playing a tough team in the Superdome, Matt Hasselbeck said, "I can't imagine a tougher scenario. But it's OK. I think we're excited to try."
As a former coach, I cringe at the t-word. Often, when people say they will try, they mean that they will give it some effort, but they expect to fail, and because they recognize the difficulty of the enterprise, they won't feel too bad about failing.
But perhaps I should focus on the word "excited." If the team is indeed excited to compete in New Orleans, that is the right attitude. In Chicago and again in Arizona, the Seahawks have shown what they can do when no one expects them to win.
Certainly, Hasselbeck has proven that he is a competitor. I have never seen him quit. I can't say the same for the rest of the team. The debacles against Oakland and New York continue to haunt me.
Which team will we see today? The hapless losers who laid down for the Raiders and the Giants? Or the valiant heroes who brutalized the Bears and conquered the Cardinals?
Simply competing--making a game of it against the defending Super Bowl champions--would constitute a strong step forward for this rebuilding team. Historically, we have struggled on the road, but today offers a chance to begin decisively to change that history.
Go, Seahawks!
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