Sunday, April 29, 2012

Another odd draft

Once again, Coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider pursued an unconventional draft strategy.

I approve of their general tactic of trading back to obtain additional picks.

However, their penchant for quirky picks--selecting players earlier than other teams and draft analysts deem wise--is thus far largely unproven.

Where the stakes are highest--in the first and second rounds--the Great Collaborators have found mixed results. Consider their first two efforts:

2010
1. Russell Okung
1. Earl Thomas
2. Golden Tate

2011
1. James Carpenter
2. John Moffitt

Stellar play and Pro Bowl honors have fully vindicated their selection of Earl Thomas.

Golden Tate has shown intriguing flashes of usefulness, but on balance he must be judged a bust thus far.

Injuries have prevented definitive analysis of the wisdom of drafting Okung, Carpenter and Moffitt. When healthy, Okung has played well, Carpenter has struggled, and Moffitt has performed adequately. However, the ability of all three to stay healthy enough to play a full season remains an open question of urgent significance.

In this context, it is far from clear whether this year's high-round picks will pay off. Both played in two of the NCAA's weaker athletic conferences.

The Great Collaborators embraced conventional wisdom in selecting Utah State's Bobby Wagner to fortify our linebacker corps in the second round. 

However, picking West Virginia pass rusher Bruce Irvin in the first round was widely considered a reach. An impressive physical specimen who played well in college, Irvin has a troubled past.

He and two later picks with rap sheets show that Carroll & Schneider continue to undervalue character, or--at best--to have strong faith in their ability to encourage troubled athletes to stay on the straight and narrow.

Perhaps their faith is justified. Marshawn Lynch had several scrapes with the law before he came to Seattle, but none since arriving here.

If the same formula can keep Irvin on the straight and narrow, then we'll get to see what he can do on the professional gridiron.

One way or another, the 2012 season will produce a verdict on the Great Collaborators' quirky early-round selections in the last three drafts. We need to see more evidence that the approach works before the franchise lets Carroll & Schneider roll the dice in the first two rounds in future drafts.

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