Saturday, January 5, 2013

The Diehard position on today's playoff games

Seattle fans have nothing at stake in the Bengals-Texans game. (Go, Justin Forsett...?)

However, every Seahawks Diehard should wish the Vikings well tonight. If Minnesota can beat Green Bay and win again next week, then Seattle would host the NFC Championship game, if we also keep winning. This is the only way the 12th Man can play a role in the postseason. The Packers are tough to beat in Green Bay, but with Adrian Peterson, great things are possible. Cue Led Zeppelin's "Immigrant Song." Go, Vikings!

Why Wilson should be offensive rookie of the year

It is difficult to decide among the trio of rookie quarterbacks contending for NFL offensive rookie of the year honors. All three helped transform losing 2011 squads into playoff qualifiers in 2012.

What criteria can help us determine who is most worthy?

Mileage matters. Andrew Luck of the Colts threw for more yards (4,374) than any rookie quarterback in NFL history. That yardage total ranked 7th in the league, and outstripped his two rookie rivals by more than 1,000 yards. While his rivals managed run-oriented offenses, Luck led an impressive aerial attack in his inaugural season, hence his advantage in passing yards. Even when we factor in each quarterback's rushing yards--a relative weakness for Luck versus his two fleet-footed rivals--the Indianapolis quarterback still maintains a significant advantage:

Andrew Luck, Colts: 4,374 yards passing + 255 yards rushing = 4,629 total yards
Robert Griffin III, Skins: 3,200 yards passing + 815 yards rushing = 4,015 total yards
Russell Wilson, Seahawks: 3,118 yards passing + 489 yards rushing = 3,607 total yards

Efficiency should also factor into the decision. Washington's Robert Griffin III achieved the highest efficiency rating ever for a rookie quarterback (102.4), finishing 4th among all qualifying passers. Russell Wilson of Seattle ranked just behind RG3 in efficiency, finishing fifth in the NFL with a rating of 100.0. Luck lagged at 26th with a score of 76.5; this was largely because he threw so many more interceptions (18) than Griffin (5) or Wilson (10).

Ultimately, scoring decides games. The Seahawks' Wilson tied Peyton Manning's record for rookie passing touchdowns with 26, more than Luck (23) or Griffin (20). Wilson also ran for 4 scores, so he produced a total of 30 touchdowns, versus 28 for Luck (23 passing + 5 rushing) and 27 for Griffin (20 thrown + 7 run). Among all quarterbacks for combined passing and rushing touchdowns, Wilson ranked 7th, Luck finished 9th, and Griffin tied for 10th with Josh Freeman and Cam Newton.

Since each statistical criteria yields a different verdict, I argue that we should let circumstances serve as the tiebreaker among the candidates.

As the top two 2012 draft picks, Luck and Griffin were expected to impress. Both signed lucrative contracts. Both were anointed as starters from the first and took all of their reps with the first teams throughout the offseason, the preseason and the regular season. Both had teams built around their strengths. Both benefited from the guidance of some of the best offensive coaches and quarterback gurus in the NFL.

Wilson, on the other hand, was a mere third round pick, widely considered too short to start in the NFL. He signed a modest contract reflecting those modest expectations. Wilson was expected to serve as a backup behind vaunted free agent Matt Flynn and possibly also veteran Tarvaris Jackson; he had to split reps with those men during the offseason and the preseason until he outcompeted them and won the starting job. Thus, he entered the regular season with significantly fewer reps than Luck or Griffin, with a team not yet customized to his skill set, under the guidance of men who have never been considered the best offensive coaches and quarterback gurus in the NFL.

Considering those significant starting disadvantages, Wilson has significantly outperformed his rivals. He is the offensive rookie of the year.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Just what we needed?

Seattle did well to win on Sunday. The Rams fought valiantly. As expected, Jeff Fisher's staff outcoached Pete Carroll's staff, but the Seahawks had better athletes and better luck.

Every victory is precious in the NFL.

Several analysts have opined that a close game was just what Seattle needed at this point.

They are wrong.

What Seattle needed was a fourth consecutive blowout to scare the hell out of our next opponent.

Winning a close one is better than losing every time, but Seattle already has plenty of experience with close games. Most of our victories and all of our losses this year were close. The barely win/narrowly lose small ball incarnation of the Seahawks doesn't really scare anyone, and it shouldn't. That version of our team was7-6 overall and 2-5 on the road.

What other teams really fear is when Seattle comes out like Kali the Destroyer, as we did during that glorious 3-game murder spree that dispatched Arizona, Buffalo and San Fransciso.

Perhaps it was too much to expect that the team could maintain that intensity in what many dismissed as a relatively meaningless game. I guess finishing undefeated at home is "meaningless." As meaningless as optimizing your win-loss record to make it possible to host the conference championship if Seattle gets that far and the 2 top seeds don't.

The costliest aspect of the close game with Sr. Louis was that Fisher's Rams provided the rest of the league with the blueprint for stalling our offense. Many teams have tried to keep Russell Wilson bottled up in the pocket, but St. Lousi pulled it off, sacking Wilson six times with a series of inspired and well-executed blitz schemes

The only good news was that five of those sacks came in the first half, and Carroll's staff managed to make some adjustments to hold St. Louis to one sack in the second half. Perhaps that learning will prevent other teams from repeating the Rams' feat.

Seattle's defense finished #1 in the NFL in terms of points allowed. It is fortunate that we have a great secondary, because we continue to give opposing quarterbacks too much time to throw the ball.

\We'd better fix that fast, or it will be a long afternoon next Sunday against RG3.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Lamb chops

It would be easy to get carried away and assume that the Seahawks will record their fourth consecutive blowout at the expense of the Rams today.

Certainly, every Seahawk diehard hopes that is the outcome.

However, Seattle cannot afford to underestimate St. Louis.

The Rams enter today's contest nearly as hot as Seattle, in two ways:

1) Recent history. St. Louis has won four of their last five games. They're not blowing anyone out, but they are winning. Three of those recent victories came on the road, albeit against middling to poor teams (Arizona, Buffalo and Tampa Bay).

2) Divisional domination. St. Louis is undefeated within the NFC West. The Rams beat Seattle back in September. They swept the Cardinals and tied the 49ers in San Francisco before beating them at home. Thus, the Rams are 4-0-1 against divisional opponents.

Jeff Fisher is an extraordinary coach who will make St. Louis a tough opponent for years to come. Prioritizing wins over divisional opponents represents sound strategy, not just in terms of the standings, but also because the investment should pay off in future years. You play divisional opponents twice a year; you play other conference opponents once a year, maybe; you play non-conference opponents every four years.

Seattle seems to have opted for the opposite strategy. We opened 0-3 against divisional opponents while faring better against competition outside the division. This allowed San Francisco to build a strong lead in the division.

By beating the Rams, Seattle can sustain momentum for the postseason, stay undefeated at home, burnish the mystique of Seahawks Stadium, intimidate future opponents, and stay alive for the division title.

Even this glorious surge late in the season probably won't suffice to win us the division championship, unless oft-waived quarterback Brian Hoyer can lead Arizona to a miraculous win over the 49ers in San Francisco today.

The Rams haven't won in Seattle since 2004. St. Louis has won only twice against the Seahawks in the last 17 games. Let's make it 2 in 18. We need to remind the Rams that we own them, that they can never hope to win in Seattle. Bring on the 12th Man.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Seattle fans questioned


Top 2 reasons why the Seattle Seahawks are not like the Oakland Raiders:

1) We win games.
2) Our fans aren't thugs.

Unfortunately, some Seattle fans have evidently been behaving boorishly toward visiting fans who wear opposing jerseys, including at last week's contest against the 49ers. Allegations include verbal abuse, foul language, and even a gutless beatdown of a San Fran fan. (See yesterday's Seattle Times article, "Are too many Seahawk fans becoming alcohol-fueled bullies?")

The online discussion of the article on the newspaper's website brims with much of the same illogic common to all online discussions.

Engaging in outrageous behavior doesn't make you a hardcore fan. It just makes you a public menace and embarrassment.

Sportsmanship and fervor are in fact entirely unrelated phenomena.

Poor sportsmanship is not evidence of greater passion for your team. It is just evidence of bad character.

Similarly, good sportsmanship reflects good character, without detracting from the depth of your fervor for your team.

It is possible to be a massively hardcore fan while remaining unfailingly decent, and that is the Seattle way.

Diehards might enjoy a slight buzz, but they won't want to get wasted in the stands, because inebriation interferes with one's enjoyment of the game's full dimensions, and because public drunkenness is criminal, obnoxious, and poor form.

Diehards understand that football is a family sport, so our language and behavior as fans must remain appropriate for children to see and hear.




It doesn't matter that fans in some other cities behave as bad, or worse.

Seattle needs to hold itself to a higher standard.

Our goal isn't to be slightly more civilized than the savages in Oakland or Philadelphia.

Seahawk diehards have higher aspirations. Namely:

1) To set the standard for sportsmanship in this country and the world.

2) To buy up so many seats that there are vanishingly few tickets left over for the fans of our opponents to procure.

The most misguided notion expressed by some readers was that cursing at and physically intimidating our opponents' fans in the stands somehow constitutes an essential element of the 12th Man mystique.

False. The 12th Man is effective because Seattle's fans are the most intelligent in the league. We achieve astonishing volume because we yell only when it makes sense to do so. We don't waste our lungs and our throats yelling when our team is on offense, or during stoppages in play. We carefully conserve our voices, waiting until we're on defense to blast our opponents on the field with a withering sonic inferno.

Some good sense emerged in the online discussion, however.

At least one writer attributed the recent decline of decorum at Seahawks Stadium to the change of team leadership from Mike Holmgren to Pete Carroll. I don't disagree.

Others perceptively opined that the boors are bandwagon latecomers, not longtime fans.

In any case, Seahawk diehards need to exert positive peer pressure to restore civility to Seattle's arena.

Bullies are cowards who depend upon crowd support or acquiescence. Nothing deflates a bully faster than when the crowd ostracizes him for his objectionable behavior.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Shocked at Sherman's exclusion?

Five Seahawks made the Pro Bowl:

The selection of Marshawn Lynch was no surprise. Beast Mode ranks second in the league in rushing and remains the focal point of our offense. Russell Wilson has played so impressively partly because opposing defenses key so monomaniacally upon Lynch on most downs.

I continue to be impressed and grateful that Pro Bowl voters recognize the excellence of Earl Thomas, despite the free safety's lack of eye-popping stats. He doesn't catch many interceptions, because most quarterbacks know better than to throw his way.

Similarly Leon Washington makes the Pro Bowl not because he has the league's most impressive return stats, because opposing coaches, punters and kickers try so hard to keep the ball away from him.

Honors for left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger confirm the emergence of our offensive line.

Several Seahawks are in line to be Pro Bowl injury replacements:


First alternates: DE Chris Clemons, FB Michael Robinson and CB Richard Sherman.
Second alternates: LB Heath Farwell (as special teams headhunter), P Jon Ryan and SS Kam Chancellor
Third alternate: QB Russell Wilson.
Fourth alternate: DT Brandon Mebane.

According to a poll on the Seattle Times website, 66% of readers were "most surprised" by Richard Sherman's exclusion from the starting Pro Bowl roster.

They shouldn't be surprised. Sherman is having a great year, but he is fortunate to be a first alternate, with a possible performance-enhancing drug suspension hanging over his head like the Sword of Damocles. Because a leak made the accusation public before his case was resolved, the flamboyant cornerback will remain guilty in the minds of fans and players even if he is ultimately excused from punishment due to  the procedural errors that he claimed contaminated his urine sample. He has not helped himself with his public statements regarding the process.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Seahawks humble the 49ers

Last night was 49er Coach Jim Harbaugh's 49th birthday. Seattle's gift to the league's most hated head coach? A 42-13 rout.

Nothing could keep Seattle earthbound last night..The Seahawks soared over adversity.

Seattle suffered a setback before kickoff when the wobbly hamstrings of Walter Thurmond and Marcus Trufant forced their deactivation, thrusting fifth string cornerback Jeremy Lane into the starting lineup again.

It didn't matter. We are learning that the Seahawk secondary is deeper than the Mariana Trench.. Lane and his fellow defensive backs successfully contained a strong San Francisco receiving corps featuring the dangerous duo of Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham, plus future Hall of Famer Randy Moss.and Pro Bowl tight end Vernon Davis.

In the first quarter, strong safety Kam Chancellor knocked Davis out of the game with a brutal blow  that prevented the 49er from completing a third-down catch near the goal line. Instead of forcing a San Fran to settle for a field goal, Chancellor's brilliant play prompted three officials to loft unfair flags for unnecessary roughness. Review of the video footage confirmed that it was a clean hit. Chancellor had led with his shoulder, not his helmet, hitting Davis in his chest, not his head. The force of the collision caused the tight end's head to snap forward and bump helmets with the defender. If personal fouls were subject to instant replay review, then the call would have been reversed..

The penalty gave the 49ers first and goal. A lesser defense would have folded, demoralized by the injustices inflicted by poor officiating. Instead, Seattle stymied San Francisco for three more downs, forcing them to settle for a field goal attempt again.

The kick was a mere chip shot, as routine as an extra point kick. A lesser team would have resigned themselves to conceding the field goal, having averted a touchdown..

Instead, Red Bryant plowed through the offensive guard, leapt skyward and batted down the ball. Richard Sherman scooped up the pigskin and sprinted 90 yards to paydirt.

Later, Optimus Prime intercepted a Colin Kaepernick pass in the end zone.

The 49er quarterback, polished in previous outings, played poorly, for the first time resembling a kid out of his depth in the NFL. He played tentatively, incurred several delay of game penalties, wasted several timeouts, and threw many errant balls. His demeanor was that of a a deer caught in the headlights. Kaepernick struggled all night, clearly rattled by the noise, by the smothering coverage of his receivers, by the pass rush that kept him bottled up between the tackles for most of the night, and by the speedy linebackers who ran him down when he tried to escape the pocket.

If Coach Jim Harbaugh had wanted to have any shot at winning, he should have benched Kaepernick at halftime for Alex Smith.

In the end, the Seattle D proved stingier than Scrooge.

In fact, this game moved the Seahawks into a statistical tie with the 49ers for the title of league's stingiest defense. Both units have allowed an average of 15.6 points per game this season.

Meanwhile, our offense soared again.

Rookie QB Russell Wilson lofted four more touchdowns, including two to the increasingly clutch Doug Baldwin. It was nice to see Husky alum Jermaine Kearse haul in a pass.

Marshawn Lynch tore off yet another 100-yard game. He has 1490 yards so far this season, with one game to go. If Lynch didn't gain a single yard next week, his 2012 yardage would put him 4th in team history, with more than Curt Warner or Ricky Watters ever managed in a single season for Seattle. A normal outing next week would elevate Lynch over Chris Warren's 1545 yards in 1994. However, Shaun Alexander's monster seasons (1696 yards in 2004, 1880 yards in 2005) remain beyond the reach of Beast Mode, at least this year.

This win was unprecedented. Before last night, the 49ers under Harbaugh had held opponents under 30 points in 30 of 32 regular season and postseason games. Only New Orleans (32 last year, in the playoffs) and New England (34 last week) put up more than 30 points, and both lost those games to San Francisco.

Seattle dropped a fortyburger on them and won emphatically. This was the demoralizing effort the Seahawks needed to hobble San Francisco in the season finale and allow Seattle a shot at the division crown.

Unfortunately, despite the ephemeral flicker of life the week before against Detroit, Arizona reverted to form and laid down for the Bears yesterday. The Cardinals are who we thought they were: a team in utter disarray. It is hard to imagine them posing much of a challenge for the 49ers next week.

St. Louis, on the other hand, looks increasingly potent, so the Seahawks will need to maintain their intensity to lay low the lambs next week.

Thanks to Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle defense, my fantasy football team--the Ajo Cholo Lowriders--rallied from behind in the championship game to win our second consecutive league title.

It was nice to see former Seahawks kicker Josh Brown (now a Bengal) eliminate the Steelers from the playoffs.